Brazil: a nuclear threshold state rejecting the IAEA Additional Protocol

In 2009 I was invited to speak at an International Seminar jointly organized by the Nonproliferation for Global Security Foundation (NPSGlobal) and the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) in Rio de Janeiro on the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

On October 30, 2009, I participated to the last of the five panels on “The future of the NPT. Should it be enhanced, changed or replaced?” It was chaired by Gareth Evans. The speakers were Ramesh Takur, Gustavo Ainchil (from Argentina) and me. 

In the oral presentation of a summary of my paper I questioned Brazil’s policy of refusing to sign and ratify the Additional Protocol (AP), and I concluded my speech by sayings:  

Brazil is seeking a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and has received support from Russia, France, and the United Kingdom. There are strong indications that the U.S. is also willing to support Brazil’s inclusion, albeit without a veto right. Brazil can count on the support of many other states such as Indonesia, South Africa and, of course, the other members of the Group of Four (Germany, India and Japan).

As stated by The Economist last August, before Rio de Janeiro was selected to host the 2016 Olympic Games, “Brazil is now on every list of the half-dozen or so new places that matter in the 21st century. It seems no international gathering, be it to discuss financial reform or climate change, is complete without Lula…Admirably for a would-be great power, Brazil has renounced nuclear weapons. Less admirably for a country that defends the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, it has refused to sign an improved safeguards protocol, denying international inspectors full access to its civilian nuclear facilities.”

Since then, a PhD thesis by Brazilian nuclear physicist Dalton Ellery Girao Barroso on the “Numerical simulation of thermonuclear detonations in hybrid means of fission-fusion imploded by radiation,” undertaken under the aegis of the Military Engineering Institute (IME) of the Army, has attracted much attention. The IAEA has expressed concerns about the nature of that thesis and the proliferation risk associated with its publication. 

What I also find worrisome are the statements made thereafter by high-ranking Brazilian officials, including members of parliament.

According to the Jornal do Brasil, Eurico Figueiredo, coordinator of the Center for Strategic Studies at the Universidade Federal Fluminense, believes that Brazil “should begin to discuss whether or not to join the group of nations that have nuclear arsenals” and “Rep. Jair Bolsonaro (PP-RJ) thinks that Congress should give political support for the military to develop the military arsenals, as do countries like Pakistan.”

 To claim that manufacturing nuclear weapons is prohibited in Brazil’s Constitution will not be sufficient in reassuring the international community. 

As a great nation and a key member of the IAEA, Brazil should lead by example and comply with IAEA General Conference resolutions. Hopefully, Brazil will sign and ratify the Additional Protocol to its Safeguards Agreement before the opening of the 2010 NPT Review Conference. 

I knew of course that this was wishful thinking.